Linkages of Arctic Sea Ice, Cloud Cover, and Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

High latitude climate system contains many complex climate feedbacks, e.g. the albedo-temperature, and surface-cloud feedbacks. Better understanding of the complex interactions between multiple components involved in these feedbacks would improve our understanding of mean climate state, recent dramatic changes, and possible future changes in the high latitudes. With the sharp decrease in Arctic sea ice extent and concentration in recent decades and probable continuous decrease through this century, the impact of sea ice changes along with cloud cover changes on the Arctic surface temperature trends become extremely important. The influence of trends in sea ice concentration (SIC) and cloud cover on trends in surface temperature over the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2004 is investigated analytically, and evaluated empirically with satellite products. The results demonstrate that changes in SIC and cloud cover played major roles in the magnitude of recent Arctic surface temperature trends. Significant surface warming associated with sea ice loss, over 0.9 K decade-1, is found over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in autumn, accounting for most of the observed 1.1 K decade-1 warming trend. If the SIC over the Arctic Ocean is reduced by half, our analysis shows that the surface temperature will increase by approximately 10 K in winter and 6 K in spring and autumn. In winter, surface temperature trends associated with changes in cloud cover are negative over most of the Arctic Ocean, and with cloud cover trends explaining -0.91 out of -1.2 K decade-1 of the surface temperature cooling. In spring, 0.55 K decade-1 of the total 1.0 K decade-1 warming can be attributed to the trend associated with cloud cover changes. After eliminating the effects of the changes in SIC and cloud cover on surface temperature trends, the residual surface temperature trends can be used in a more robust diagnosis of surface warming or cooling in the Arctic.