Melting Ice and Drifting Interests: Assessing the Arctic's Importance as an Energy Region

A frozen area once of interest only to a limited number of actors, the contemporary Arctic emerges as a region of considerable economic and political importance. Melting ice and technological advances make the Arctic increasingly accessible, prompting new development opportunities, and environmental concerns. Within this context, several Arctic states as well as non-Arctic states have issued specific policy documents reflecting on the mounting regulatory challenges and asserting Arctic strategies of their own. One fundamental point at issue is the exploitation of hydrocarbon resources and the ways in which prospects of the Arctic becoming a major oil and gas region affect political developments there.

This paper explores the impact of environmental change on political and commercial approaches to the Circumpolar North from an energy perspective. We start from the assumption that there is a discrepancy between scientific information, political and public perception, as well as industry interest. Assuming that activities related to Arctic oil and gas will accelerate, we investigate the background, nature, and implications of petroleum industry operations. We then identify political initiatives recently put forward in response to potential Arctic energy developments. Emphasis is placed on how scientific information on the region's undiscovered resources has been interpreted and represented in public discourses.

We argue that while onshore oil and gas already play a role in enhancing national energy security, the viability of offshore development in the short and medium term is more dubious than commonly maintained. In evaluating offshore resource contribution to energy markets, a myriad of factors need to be taken into account, many of which are difficult to predict, including oil price, sub-regional investment conditions, and exploration efforts elsewhere. Alarmist predictions of 'a mad dash for resources' should be tempered by more realistic assessments of available data, resources distribution and access, as well as current and future operation challenges.

Thus, by discussing the realities of Arctic energy, this paper provides a sober analysis of what is to be expected in the world's northern reaches and whether governmental attitudes are consistent with the suggested outlooks. The paper concludes by identifying arenas for improved communication between science, policy, and industry aimed at promoting the rational, sustainable use of Arctic riches.