Modeling Regional Dynamics of Human-Rangifer Systems: A Framework for Comparative Analysis

We explore theoretical models of interaction between wild and domestic herds along with the associated dynamics of arctic hunting and herding systems. Wild and domestic Rangifer are typically ecological competitors, with similar sets of factors affecting viability of herding and hunting livelihood systems. We simulate simple density-dependent models of interaction to show that random environmental shocks can unpredictably produce either stable or divergent paths of domestic and wild herds over time. However, hypothesized differences in ecological competition and diverse human livelihood strategies suggest dynamic interactions that cannot be captured in a simple density-dependent model. Consequently, we explore more complex social-ecological models that competitively interact domestic herds with wild herds, developing a modeling framework from which to consider issues in the evolution of Human-Rangifer Systems such as state-subsidized herding and the use of domestic herds for transportation support in hunting systems. We also address getting herding started in a hunting society, and how environmental shocks, herd cycling, and policy shifts might produce system state changes within the theoretical framework. Finally, we discuss empirical strategies for estimating parameters of the model for use in comparative analyses across regions of the Arctic.