Preliminary Reliability Assessment of Inuit Diagnoses of Sex, Age, Size, and Age of Track From in Situ Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Tracks

A prompt and inexpensive noninvasive polar bear-activity survey that includes Inuit traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) estimates of polar bear characteristics from tracks could complement ongoing capture-mark-recapture methods to better monitor polar bear populations in response to climate-induced habitat changes. Prior to the inclusion of these Inuit track estimates, they need to be evaluated for reliability and accuracy. Building on our previous work, which showed increased reliability among active hunters, we report reliability in estimates of sex, age, size, and age of track of an increased number of tracks (78) by a larger number of Inuit Hunters (N=9) in M'Clintock Channel, Nunavut. Using Cronbach's alpha (α) we show these 9 hunters as a group are reliable in estimates of sex (α=0.74), age (α=0.81) and size (α=0.91), and not reliable with age of track (α=0.35). When one hunter is excluded, the estimate of reliability for age of track increased (α=0.85). We show estimates of sex are significantly different (chi-square=20.20, df=8, P<<0.05) as are estimates of age (one-way ANOVA, df=8, F=58.95, P<<0.05), size (one-way ANOVA, df=8, F=15.60, P<<0.05) and age of track (with the exclusion of the one participant; one-way ANOVA, df=7, F=6.37, P<<0.05) suggesting differences among the hunters. Semi-structured, open-ended interviews with each participant reveal they vary in their methods of tracking and polar bear hunting experience, which may explain some of these differences. We describe genetic and other means of testing the accuracy of these sex, age and size of bears from tracks. These findings suggest Inuit hunters are reliable in their estimates, which has encouraging implications for a non-invasive polar bear-activity survey.