Using Scenarios to Explore the Complex Linkages of Arctic Marine Transportation to the Global System

The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic states, sponsored during 2005-09 a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine activity early in the 21st century. The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA), approved by the Arctic Ministers in April 2009, focuses on Arctic marine safety and marine environmental protection which fit the overall mandates of the Arctic Council. The AMSA 2009 Report can be considered a baseline assessment, a strategic guide for a host of Arctic and non-Arctic stakeholders, and a policy document of the Arctic Council. AMSA was circumpolar in focus, yet it considered many regional and local perspectives in select Arctic communities. Scenarios and scenario-thinking were used in AMSA to sort out and identify the key drivers and uncertainties among the many significant changes ongoing in the maritime Arctic. The scenarios creation effort assisted in understanding the interplay among globalization, climate change, governance, natural resource development, indigenous use, international politics in the Arctic Ocean, and more. The AMSA Team identified two key uncertainties which may determine the future of Arctic marine transportation: natural resource development & trade, and governance (the operating legal and regulatory structures). By crossing the two uncertainties, a matrix of four plausible scenarios of future Arctic marine use were developed: Polar Preserve, Polar Lows, Arctic Race and Arctic Saga. A number of selected, wildcard factors were highlighted - all loom large as important and add considerable uncertainty to the future of Arctic marine use. Using scenarios within AMSA was one of the keys to developing future directions that the Arctic states could pursue to build effective and appropriate governance of the global industries operating in the maritime Arctic. The use scenarios applied to this complex topic also provided significiant insight into how the maritime Arctic is in fact linked to the entire planet in many unforseen ways such as natural resources, tourism, trade, security and global environmental change.