4.2. Establishing Priorities for Mitigation and Adaptation and Evaluating Solutions

As global warming reduces the summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, ecosystems which require perennial ice are likely to survive longest in the region immediately north of Canada and Greenland. Models and satellite data indicate that summer sea ice will persist longer in this region than any anywhere else in the Arctic. Analysis of models and satellite data indicate that this natural refugium relies on locally created sea ice, as well as drifting ice that forms originally over the central Arctic.

Current change in the Arctic is accelerating the need for increased and more accurate observing, monitoring, and forecasting of environmental conditions in the region. New and existing international cooperative relationships, capitalizing on regional expertise, shared resources, technological advancements, and scientific research are being strengthened and established. These partnerships are gaining recognition as the most cost effective, timely, productive means of advancing operational and scientific knowledge in the Arctic.

Recent increases in the price of fuel in rural Alaska, coupled with high prices of grocery store foods and decreased efficacy of hunting and fishing have led to a food crisis in many regions of rural Alaska. In the summer of 2008 it was predicted that these events would lead to an upswing in the number of individuals migrating to urban areas of Alaska, putting additional stress on the already dwindling resources of food assistance providers.

The Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Arctic Regions (CAVIAR) project is based on assessments of the vulnerability of communities across the circumpolar Arctic to changing environmental conditions, including climate change. The research, under the auspices of International Polar Year (IPY), involves 26 case studies using a common framework and participatory methodology. The research outlines the ways in which communities experience environmental changes and explores adaptive strategies and adaptive capacity, including roles of governance institutions.

Climate change is already being experienced in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT) with implications for ecosystems and the people who depend on them. Changes in temperature, seasonal patterns, and sea ice and wind dynamics are affecting travel routes to hunting areas, community infrastructure and are exacerbating hazards associated with travel and subsistence. These effects have implications for food security, the integrity of buildings and transportation infrastructure, resource development and culture.

Ongoing climate change vulnerability research since 2002 in the Inuit community of Igloolik, Nunavut, has helped to identify and characterize the multiple determinants of vulnerability operating over different spatial and temporal scales. In early iterations of the research, compromised food security was identified as a major concern leading to the development of targeted food system studies. In this paper we report on this work, characterizing the nature of food insecurity and examining the conditions and processes which constrain access, availability, and quality of food.

Climate change is altering the physical, ecological and climatic conditions of northern Canada. The increasingly unpredictable nature of these environmental factors, coupled with broader socio-economic changes, is affecting the land-use of Inuit hunters. The Iqaluit Land-Use Mapping Project (ILMP) seeks to identify, spatialize and monitor the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of Inuit hunters via a holistic appraisal of their behavioral responses to changing conditions.

This paper examines the phenomenon of environmental migration across multiple scales. First we examine how international policy makers and researchers are just now pursuing plans to monitor environmental migration across the globe. We will then look at the increasing problems with erosion and flooding particularly affecting villages in Alaska. Finally this paper will examine in detail the single case study of Shishmaref, Alaska.

Climate change is increasingly presented as key policy challenge, raising complex economic, social and ecological questions. Of high relevance are the effects of climate change in the Circumpolar North, where rapidly receding summer sea-ice coverage has led to a reemergence of interests in both the region's environmental and geopolitical circumstances. While few dispute the hazards of arctic warming, environmental change may in fact bring new opportunities regarding access to the region's plentiful energy resources and sea routes.

WWF recognizes that even with major reductions in global GHG emissions, substantial changes will occur in arctic ecosystems this century and that these will have huge impacts on wildlife and humans.