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Arctic Cloud Changes During Intervals of Rapid Sea Ice Loss

Arctic Cloud Changes During Intervals of Rapid Sea Ice Loss
Type: 
Parallel
Time: 
17 March 2010 - 10:25am
Steve Vavrus1, Marika Holland2, David Bailey3
1Center for Climatic Research (CCR), University of Wisconsin, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI, 53706, USA, Phone 608-265-5279, Fax 608-263-4190, sjvavrus [at] wisc [dot] edu
2National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
3National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

We investigate the role of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000–2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, whereas the trends are more highly variable among RILEs during winter. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily attributable to low clouds, which show a more robust response across RILEs than do middle and high clouds. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn demonstrate that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but we find no evidence on monthly time scales that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the ongoing decline in arctic sea ice will be enhanced by changes in polar clouds.

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National Science Foundation | Division of Arctic Sciences
National Science Foundation
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Arctic System Science Program
Arctic System Science Program
US Arctic Research Commission
US Arctic Research Commission
North Slope Science Initiative
North Slope Science Initiative
International Arctic Science Committee
International Arctic Science Committee
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
World Wildlife Fund
WWF
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Land Management
International Study of Arctic Change
International Study of Arctic Change
ArcticNet
ArcticNet
DAMOCLES
Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the ARCUS Cooperative Agreement ARC-0618885. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.