Challenge, Risk, and Opportunity: The Human Dimensions of a Changing Arctic

In recent decades the synthesis of human dimensions data from diverse sources has significantly improved our knowledge of arctic land use and occupancy, subsistence and commercial food production, oil and gas and other industrial enterprises, and the changing demographics of arctic communities. Our understanding of the complex linkages among arctic environmental change, ecosystem services and human health, and well-being (as broadly construed) is vastly improved, although there are still many drivers and feedbacks to change, and couplings that are unclear. New partnerships among arctic peoples, non-local stakeholders, and scientists have brought about a transition in our understanding of what constitutes data, and in our approach to the collection, use, and application of knowledge. Meeting the scientific and societal challenges of change requires cooperation, collaboration, and creative thinking but this is conditioned by social, political, and economic factors that are linked at local, regional, pan-arctic, and global scales. The pace of change across all dimensions of the arctic system may exceed expectations and non-linearity within the system presents a considerable unknown.

Drawing on our increased understanding of changes in the cryosphere, the marine and terrestrial environments, the hydrological cycle, and seasonality, and the coupling of these to ecosystem services and human activities, I consider how the last decade has shaped our understanding of the challenges, risks, and opportunities presented by arctic change at the pan-arctic scale. I focus on critical cross-cutting questions of land use, industrial development, food security, demography and human health and consider whether we have sufficient, relevant information to cope with risk and manage opportunities arising from arctic environmental change over the coming years.