Dendroclimatic Relationships at Treeline in Northern Sweden Indicate Continued Dominance of Mountain Birch

Changing climate in the Arctic is expected to have significant effects on the pattern and distribution of terrestrial vegetation. Species characteristic of specific zones in the mountains of northern Sweden have been shown to migrate up and downslope with changes in climate over the Holocene. This study evaluates the potential for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) to become a treeline dominant at Fennoscandian treelines replacing mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czeropanovii). Data from paired mountain birch and Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for 8 locations in northern Sweden are used to develop climate tree-ring width index (RWI) relationships. Modeled climate RWI relationships are then used to predict the relative RWI values of the two species under a suite of climate change scenarios using an ensemble of three global climate models. Results indicate that birch and pine RWI are both correlated with summer temperatures, but pine is more likely than birch to be influenced by moisture conditions. Predictions of RWI under future climate conditions indicate that mountain birch is unlikely to be replaced by Scots pine within the next century.