Fate of Early-2000s Arctic Warm Water Pulse
Igor V. Polyakov1, Vladimir V. Alexeev2, Igor M. Ashik3, Sheldon Bacon4, Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller 5, Igor Dmitrenko6, Louis Fortier7, Jean-Claude Gascard8, Edmond Hansen9, Jens Hölemann10, Vladimir V. Ivanov11, Takashi Kikuchi12, Sergey Kirillov13, Yueng-Djern Lenn14, Jan Piechura15, Irina Repina16, Leonid A. Timokhov17, Waldemar Walczowski 18
1International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA, igor [at] iarc [dot] uaf [dot] edu
2University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA, valexeev [at] iarc [dot] uaf [dot] edu
3Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.-Petersburg, -, Russia, ashik [at] aari [dot] nw [dot] ru
4National Ocenography Centre, Southampon, Suthampton, UK, shb [at] noc [dot] soton [dot] ac [dot] uk
5AWI, Bremerhaven, Germany, Agnieszka [dot] Beszczynska-Moeller [at] awi [dot] de
6IFM-Geomar, Kiel, -, Germany, idmitrenko [at] ifm-geomar [dot] de
7Laval University, Quebec, -, Canada, louis [dot] fortier [at] bio [dot] ulaval [dot] ca
8Pierre and Marie Curie University, Paris, -, USA, Jean-Claude [dot] Gascard [at] lodyc [dot] jussieu [dot] fr
9Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso, -, Norway, edmond [dot] hansen [at] npolar [dot] no
10AWI, Bremerhaven, -, Germany, jens [dot] hoelemann [at] awi [dot] de
11International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA, vivanov [at] iarc [dot] uaf [dot] edu
12JAMSTEC, Tokyo, -, Japan, takashik [at] jamstec [dot] go [dot] jp
13Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.-Petersburg, -, Russia, dia [at] aari [dot] nw [dot] ru
14Bangor University, Bangor, -, UK, oss618 [at] bangor [dot] ac [dot] uk
15IOPAN, Gdansk, -, Poland, piechura [at] iopan [dot] gda [dot] pl
16Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, -, Russia, repina [at] ifaran [dot] ru
17Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.-Petersburg, -, Russia, ltim [at] aari [dot] ru
18IOPAN, Gdansk, -, Poland, walczows [at] iopan [dot] gda [dot] pl
The temperature of intermediate (150-900m) Atlantic Water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean increased over recent decades, culminating in 2007 which was, on average, 0.24°C warmer than the warming in the 1990s. However, recent observations suggest that the warm pulse of water of Atlantic origin which entered the Arctic Ocean in the early 2000s, passed its peak and the eastern Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a cooler state. By analysis of a vast collection of observational data, we have shown the possible importance of AW warming for uptake of this heat by overlying layers, with possible implications for an already-reduced Arctic ice cover. What remains unclear is the degree to which these changes reflect long-term trends (i.e., are associated with greenhouse forcing) or low-frequency fluctuations, or a combination of both. This may have wide implications and should be considered when assessing high-latitude and global climate change.