Futures of Arctic Marine Transport by 2030: An Explorative Scenario Approach

Scenarios are valuable tools for decisionmakers. The prediction of the future development of most real systems is inherently complex and usually inaccurate. Scenarios allow us to develop and bring into focus several images of future developments. These images can help decisionmakers to plan for a range of futures. Scenarios can also be a useful tool in identifying early indicators as to what the actual future development will be.

Scenario processes have been successfully employed in state, regional, local, and corporate planning and hazard or disaster response. Public scenario processes, as the one employed in this study, can be used to induce conversation between different stakeholder groups and to stimulate thinking 'outside the box'.

In this work we investigated possible futures for the Arctic Ocean and its coastal regions relative to marine transportation for the year 2030. Key factors for the developments in the Arctic were identified based on the data accumulated in an expert workshop of the Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). While this contribution is not part of the formal AMSA process, we explore to what an extent consistency analysis can help refine and evaluate some of the AMSA scenarios. Each key factor was assigned several possible future projections, i.e., directions this key factor could possibly develop. The accumulated data were then made available on the web for comment by a broad range of experts and laymen. After revision of the data, the Consistency and Robustness Analysis (see corresponding poster) was used to assess possible futures for the Arctic. Based on the outcome of these calculations five scenarios were developed encompassing the most divergent future developments. We will outline these five scenarios and early indicators as to which of these scenarios is likely to mirror the actual development best. Further, we will discuss several Wild Card events we identified during the process that decisionmakers should be aware of and have contingency plans for.

Furthermore, we will discuss how these scenarios correspond to the body of knowledge accumulated in the University of Alaska's 'North by 2020' project. And how they can be utilized as a cornerstone in a broader assessment of possible futures for the Arctic.