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How Soon Will We See a Sea-Ice-Free Summer Arctic?

How Soon Will We See a Sea-Ice-Free Summer Arctic?
Type: 
Parallel
Time: 
17 March 2010 - 9:55am
Muyin Wang1, James E. Overland2
1JISAO, University of Washington, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA, Phone 206-526-4532, Fax 206-526-6485, muyin [dot] wang [at] noaa [dot] gov
2NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA, Phone 206-526-6795, Fax 206-526-6485, james [dot] e [dot] overland [at] noaa [dot] gov

Current studies report a range of timing for a nearly sea-ice-free Arctic from 2012 to late 21st century. We examine the assumptions behind these estimates. When the IPCC AR4 Report was published in early 2007, the projected date for loss of summer sea ice cover for the Arctic was near the end of 21st century. Boe (UCLA) et al. also project an ice-free Arctic before the end of the century. The low sea ice extent and reduced amounts of old/thick sea ice observed in the summers of 2007, 2008 and 2009, below the envelope of the IPCC climate model projection ensemble results, support the hypothesis that the real world is on a fast trajectory for sea ice loss. Single ensemble members from the NCAR CCSM3 model suggest a timing of loss before mid-century. Using a subset of IPCC models which were selected based on observational constraints (mean and seasonality), and taking the sea ice extent from the summer of 2007/2008 as initial conditions, we have suggested a timing of 2037 for a nearly sea ice free Arctic, with a standard deviation of 10 years. Results from a regional scale model (Naval Postgraduate School) with high resolution ocean dynamics support an early sea ice free summer (2012) based on the role of ocean transport. Satellite observations also can support an early loss by 2013 (Zwally, NASA). However, data from ice mass buoys (Perovich) suggest that it will be difficult to remove sea ice from the vicinity of the North Pole in the immediate future. Given the evidence of the importance of ocean heat transport from summer/fall 2009 data, we now suggest a timing for sea ice loss before our previous 2037 estimate. Late century loss estimates tacitly assume that major individual events such as 2007 are random, occurring on an anthropogenic downward trend. In contrast, if sea ice changes from the 2007 event lead to a one way feedback, loss could occur before mid-century. Modification of ocean currents and heat storage could produce even earlier sea ice loss, as their impacts are not well included in IPCC type climate models. A recent NCAR model study shows that a thinner sea ice regime exhibits less predictability than a thicker sea ice regime (Holland), so that uncertainty in the timing of sea ice loss over the next decades will remain high.

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National Science Foundation | Division of Arctic Sciences
National Science Foundation
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Arctic System Science Program
Arctic System Science Program
US Arctic Research Commission
US Arctic Research Commission
North Slope Science Initiative
North Slope Science Initiative
International Arctic Science Committee
International Arctic Science Committee
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
World Wildlife Fund
WWF
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Land Management
International Study of Arctic Change
International Study of Arctic Change
ArcticNet
ArcticNet
DAMOCLES
Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the ARCUS Cooperative Agreement ARC-0618885. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.