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Incorporating a Meteorological Constraint to Plant Migration in a Dynamic Vegetation Model: Projections of Future Vegetation Distribution in the Pan-Arctic

Incorporating a Meteorological Constraint to Plant Migration in a Dynamic Vegetation Model: Projections of Future Vegetation Distribution in the Pan-Arctic
Type: 
Parallel
Time: 
16 March 2010 - 2:00pm
Eunjee Lee1, C. Adam Schlosser2, Xiang Gao3, Ronald G. Prinn4
1EAPS / Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., E19-429B, MIT, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA, Phone 617-253-0136, eunjee [at] mit [dot] edu
2Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA, casch [at] MIT [dot] EDU
3Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA, xgao304 [at] MIT [dot] EDU
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA, rprinn [at] mit [dot] edu

In estimating natural vegetation composition, current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) do not consider constraints (such as seed dispersal) to plant migration process; however, this lack of migration constraints could potentially lead to overestimation of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity (IPCC WG2). In this study, we have implemented a plant migration constraint driven by a meteorological condition (i.e., prevailing wind directions) that controls seed availability from neighbors, to the NCAR CLM-DGVM. In order to gauge the sensitivity of the Arctic natural vegetation response to different regional climate change patterns, we use two GCM patterns (dry & warm vs. wet & cool) imposed to the MIT-IGSM climate projections with three different climate sensitivities (i.e., high, median and low) over the period 2010-2100. Our result indicates that the unrestricted plant migration process in a current DGVM may have overestimated tree covers and underestimated herbaceous plant covers, compared to our seed-restricted DGVM. In addition, we analyze subsequent changes in albedo, plant biomass carbon, and surface runoff in the Pan-Arctic region.

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National Science Foundation | Division of Arctic Sciences
National Science Foundation
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
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Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
World Wildlife Fund
WWF
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Land Management
International Study of Arctic Change
International Study of Arctic Change
ArcticNet
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DAMOCLES
Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the ARCUS Cooperative Agreement ARC-0618885. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.