Natural Components of Climate Change During the Last Few Hundred Years

Climate change during the last few hundred years may be interpreted mainly in terms of a combination of the recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the multi-decadal oscillation, which are natural changes. Thus, there is a possibility that only a small fraction of the warming between 1900 and 2000 may be attributed to the CO₂ greenhouse effect. The present halting of temperature rise may be due to the multi-decadal oscillation. In this view, the predicted temperature change in 2100 is about 0.5 degrees, if the recovery from the LIA would continue. There is an urgent need for correctly identifying natural components of climate change.