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Quantification and modeling of patch-scale shrub expansion in the Alaskan Arctic

Quantification and modeling of patch-scale shrub expansion in the Alaskan Arctic
Type: 
Poster
Adam T Naito1, David M Cairns2
1Geography, Texas A&M University, 810 Eller O&M Building, 3147 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-3147, USA, adam [dot] naito [at] tamu [dot] edu
2Geography, Texas A&M University, 810 Eller O&M Building, 3147 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-3147, USA, cairns [at] tamu [dot] edu

Shrub expansion over the course of the 20th century in the Alaskan Arctic has been documented from experimental plot data and broad-scale satellite remote sensing. There is, however, a lack of knowledge regarding expansion at the intermediate patch-scale. Analysis of repeat oblique aerial photography from two dates (late 1940s and late 1990s) in the Colville River basin identified significant expansion (3-80% increase). While it has been proposed that this expansion follows a simple logistic growth model, its precise nature in the interim period is largely unknown. Building on this work, this study aims to more explicitly quantify and model the manner in which shrub expansion has occurred in the Colville basin and other sites throughout the North Slope. From compilation and georectification of historic vertical aerial photos of these sites, along with associated high-resolution orthorectified QuickBird imagery, we will map shrub patches in a GIS. We will calculate pattern metrics of these maps using FRAGSTATS to pinpoint potential variability in spatial patterns. Additionally, we will develop and implement a stochastic cellular model that simulates shrub expansion and incorporates environmental heterogeneity (e.g., topography and hydrology) and biological processes (e.g., clonal expansion and seed dispersal). Analysis of the model output using FRAGSTATS, MANOVA, and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) will allow us to determine which environmental parameters best explain the observed pattern of expansion. This knowledge and methodology can then be used to refine hypotheses about the processes controlling shrub expansion and can also be applied to predict future expansion in Alaska and in other areas throughout the Arctic.

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National Science Foundation | Division of Arctic Sciences
National Science Foundation
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Arctic System Science Program
Arctic System Science Program
US Arctic Research Commission
US Arctic Research Commission
North Slope Science Initiative
North Slope Science Initiative
International Arctic Science Committee
International Arctic Science Committee
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Arctic Ocean Sciences Board
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Alaska Ocean Observing System
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
World Wildlife Fund
WWF
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Land Management
International Study of Arctic Change
International Study of Arctic Change
ArcticNet
ArcticNet
DAMOCLES
Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the ARCUS Cooperative Agreement ARC-0618885. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.