Russian Research Highlights for the Arctic

Russia is enhancing its observational and research efforts in the Arctic. The observational highlights include modernization and reconstruction of surface networks and polar stations; the Federal Target Programme “World Ocean”; the project “Opening up and making use of the Arctic”; the foundation of Russian research centre at Svalbard (Barentsburg); the foundation of Tiksi observatory to be opened in 2010; the foundation of the Russian second polar research vessel of high ice class (in 2009) to be used mostly in the Antarctic, but also in the Arctic along with the “Akademik Fedorov”. A concept of the multi-target space system “Arktika” is to be developed.

Russia’s First Climate Assessment Report published by Roshydromet in 2008 ends up with a summary of national climate research priorities. The 6th All-Russia Meteorological Congress (14-16 October 2009) listed the Arctic and permafrost zone among top research priorities for the Russian science. Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (signed by President Medvedev on 17 December 2009) implies developing and realization of the corresponding national strategy and – on its basis – federal, regional and sectorial programmes and action plans. The plans include developing Russian National Weather and Climate Research Programme.

Currently, grand challenges of the Russian climate science largely coincide with those of the international science and include the fate of the permafrost carbon and associated global warming feedbacks; the observed rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice and the projections; the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget quantification, particularly in the context of the MOC evolution; possibilities of near-term predictions (up to a decade) globally and in high latitudes, with particular attention to “slow” components of the climate system; climate change adaptation and risk management options.

Meaningful prediction/projection of the Arctic climate for the coming decades and beyond requires progress in several interconnected areas of research and observations including:

• Determining priorities of observational and modelling developments (e.g. dedicated ice thickness satellite missions, climate modelling allowing data assimilation, etc.) aimed at improving credibility of predictions and projections;
• Better understanding of the predictability of the Arctic climate on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales;
• Detection and attribution of the Arctic climate change (i.e. quantification of the interplay of its forced and unforced aspects) and evaluation of the ability of the state-of-the art climate models to reproduce the observed Arctic climate behaviour as a part of the global climate system, with as full as possible accounting of ice-atmosphere-ocean processes, interactions and feedbacks.

The IPY 2007-2008 has shown the feasibility of addressing key environmental and social issues in the polar regions, but their nature requires a systematic and sustainable approach. A long term approach, such as the International Polar Decade (IPD) – a recent Russia’s major initiative, would be a decisive step in this direction. It should address critical long term issues for developing and improving international cooperation in polar research and observations, including data and information management, and environmental prediction. All these requirements are consistent with several major initiatives which form the composition of the IPY observing systems legacy. IPD could be considered as an umbrella under which the IPY legacy initiatives would be developed.